The 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) forecast, recently released by Boeing, predicts the global fleet to reach approximately 50,000 commercial aircraft by 2044. The company also emphasized that during the upcoming two decades, the air travel market growth will be driven by emerging markets.
Currently, the emerging markets represent nearly forty percent of the global commercial fleet. According to the CMO, they will increase that share to over fifty percent by 2044. In addition, those markets will play an outsized role in the global air traffic growth by expanding middle classes, dynamic and competitive airline networks, as well as sustained aviation investment. The Boeing´s forecast predicts the aforementioned factors help to drive a need for 43,600 airliners over the next twenty years.
´Throughout the first quarter of this century, passenger air traffic tripled and the global airplane fleet more than doubled as the commercial aviation industry navigated significant challenges,´ said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing. ´Resilience will remain a hallmark of this growing industry as we continue to see strong demand for new airplanes with commercial aviation returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory.´
The latest CMO forecast points that passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4.2 per cent annually ─ more than doubling in size as it continues to outpace global economic growth. In addition, about eighty per cent of airliners being currently in service with the air carrier companies will be replaced during the nearest future to improve fleet efficiency and capability.
According to Boeing, single-aisle airplanes will make up to seventy-two per cent of the global fleet, up from sixty-six percent in 2024, driven largely by short-haul travel and low-cost carriers in emerging markets. The global fleet of wide body airliners will increase to approximately 8,320 aircraft, up from roughly 4,400 in 2024 ─ growth driven by carriers in emerging markets expanding their long-haul fleets.
In addition, supply chain diversification and expanding express cargo networks will drive a nearly two-thirds expansion of the global freighter fleet and the need for 2,900 new and converted freighters.
Boeing publishes the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry. The complete outlook is available at: boeing.com/cmo.
Cover photo: Boeing 777-300ER, All Nippon Airways, 2012.
All quotations © Boeing. Information from the Boeing Company press releases were used.
