Ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow 2026, Boeing released its latest forecast for the global commercial aircraft fleet. According to the American aerospace manufacturer, nearly 44,000 new aircraft deliveries are expected over the next twenty years, while passenger traffic is forecast to double and the global fleet is projected to grow by nearly 80% by 2045.
The 2026 edition of the company’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) forecasts that over the next twenty years global operators will require almost 44,000 new aircraft over the next twenty years. Around half of these deliveries are expected to support the continued growth of air travel by replacing older-generation aircraft with more fuel-efficient types. The remaining deliveries will be driven by the expansion of both air cargo operations and point-to-point route networks.
“Airlines are adapting quickly to manage near-term industry constraints while demand for air travel remains resilient,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing Senior Vice President of Commercial Sales and Marketing. “That demand is driving the need to grow and modernise the global fleet, underscoring the importance of new, fuel-efficient aeroplanes that will play an increasingly vital role in connecting people and economies around the world.”
According to Boeing, current short-term disruptions will not affect the long-term growth of the aviation industry. Although the crisis in the Middle East has impacted global passenger air travel, the CMO states that this will only be a temporary effect, largely limited to long-haul traffic in certain regions.
Although the current geopolitical situation has forced many passengers to alter their travel plans, most are simply changing their destinations and routes rather than cancelling travel altogether. At the same time, point-to-point and short-haul leisure markets continue to lead traffic growth.
The forecast also highlights that, in the long term, “air travel continues to connect the world through enduring demand drivers, including extended and dispersed families and friend networks, growing tourism and expanding destinations, trade and commerce.” As a result, global passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4% annually, leading to a doubling of worldwide air traffic between 2026 and 2045.
According to the forecast, new deliveries between 2026 and 2045 will comprise 33,545 single-aisle aircraft, 7,715 wide-body airliners, 1,435 regional aeroplanes and 930 freighter aircraft.
Approximately 45% of all new deliveries are expected to go to mature markets, including North America, Eurasia, Oceania and North-East Asia. The remaining 55% will go to emerging and developing markets, such as China, the Middle East, Latin America, South Asia, South-East Asia, and Africa.
The forecast also projects that less than 10% of previous-generation airliners will remain in service by 2045.
The 2026 edition of the CMO in numbers:
- Passenger traffic has continued to grow despite double-digit fluctuations in oil prices during 17 of the last 25 years.
- Half of the 5,500 new routes added to the global network over the past decade are now served daily or more frequently.
- Airlines generate nearly half of their revenue from premium passenger traffic, cargo operations and ancillary revenue streams.
- The global single-aisle fleet will nearly double to more than 36,000 aircraft, serving core short-haul networks and providing more than half of global passenger capacity.
- More than 8,000 wide-body aircraft will be in service by 2045, supporting long-haul passenger services, enhanced passenger comfort and critical air cargo capacity.
- Growth in air cargo traffic, together with the need for new-generation freighters to replace older aircraft, will drive demand for more than 2,900 newly built and converted freighters.
The Commercial Market Outlook has been published by Boeing since 1961. The forecast is widely regarded as one of the most comprehensive analyses of the commercial aviation industry. The full 2026 outlook is available at boeing.com/cmo. In addition, the company recently released updated editions of the Commercial Services Market Outlook and the Pilot and Technician Outlook covering the 2026–2045 period.
Cover photo: Boeing 757-200. Quotations and photo #1 © Boeing. Information from The Boeing Company press releases were used.
